Comparative economic analysis of recombinant porcine somatotropin (pST) for the hog-pork industry.

A multisector model was formulated to simulate the effects of recombinant porcine somatotropin (pST) on the U.S. hog-pork industry. A producer sector submodel was specified for nine hog-producing states, and a retail-wholesale sector was specified on a national level. Four pST adoption scenarios were tested; these differed in the extent of feed cost reduction (15 vs 25%) with or without premium pricing ($3 per animal). Simulation results show that, in general, national producer and retail prices will fall and pork consumption and production will increase due to pST use during the 5 yr of adoption. Responses to pST in terms of percentage of sows farrowing among states differed; states that produce more pork responded less than states that produce less. Downward price adjustments occurred and began stabilizing in the 4th yr; hog farmers will need to use pST to remain competitive.